Water AlliesTier 2
at HVN BrandX StoreChamp
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1107
· median 1107
· range 1107–1107
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1040
Q1 1208
Q3 1399
1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
